Monday, October 6, 2008


from Murph

It appears that the predictions of the economic downturn is upon us. This morning, the DOW dropped below 10,000, (a bench mark), gold is beginning to go back up, and from the various news sources the banksters around the world are scurrying around looking for a hidey hole or getting bailed out by various governments.

It is generally not smart to take a single day’s activities and proclaim a general pattern from it. However, we have been looking at a serious unraveling of the gangsters running the banking and government services for some time now. The question is now whether we have actually gone over the cliff. Will something be done to pull the asses of the criminal banksters and grifters of the economic system out of the hole they have dug over the last 10 years? I suspect not, but, as I often state, we can expect surprises.

My best scenario on this is that all this scary stuff remains in the financial sector and doesn’t flow into the society as a whole. But, I have small hope for that. When the significantly large amount of the population suddenly can’t eat at McDonalds any more, or their ATM card won’t get them their week’s groceries any more, when they can’t fill the gas tank to get to work, then all hell will break loose. I sure hope all of you have pulled whatever cash you had in a bank out and put it under the mattress or maybe buried it in a fruit jar in the back yard. I know we have. While that amount in the bank was piddling we took out all but what is needed for paying immediate bills. Just in case you understand that if there develops a general run on the banks, they will close their doors. No checks, no ATMs, no cash withdrawals and probably a complete shutdown of credit card usage. The projections circulating around on the web is when/if this happens, no money will be available for one to two weeks at least. It also means that deliveries to local stores will dry up regardless of how much cash you have around.

For over two years now, Freeacre and I have been warning people that if this occurs, you need to be prepared. At first glance, it appears that we are in the middle of the SHTF scenario. The fact that the Feds are going to begin pumping money into the economy in some form or another that also means that what your dollars will buy is going to go down, it will take more dollars to buy the same items.

What will really be interesting to see are the effects on the retired part of our population, especially those dependent on investments for their retirement incomes, and the social security net. I hope you all realize that the social security “fund” has trillions of dollars of security IOU’s from the government, no cash. Those of us which have that income as sole income are just going to be shit out of luck. It will be interesting to see just how much adjustment for inflation in SS payments will be made this January. So what are people depending on SS to buy groceries going to do? Keep in mind these are mostly older folks from the baby boom times that predominately have the attitude of entitlement. In some respects, they are legitimate, having spent a lifetime putting money into the SS fund and then either not getting anything back or in dollars so valueless that you can’t buy groceries. Most of these older folks depending on largess from the government are older and a whole lot more cranky and have a tendency to be a bunch less forgiving about interrupting their retirement income. Will they finally say “fuck it” and pick up a gun, or just sit around in their easy chairs and point fingers and bitch at whoever they deem as responsible?

What will the younger folks still working and trying to make ends meet do when they can’t get groceries? Go to protests on the streets demanding the government bail them out too? They best not be holding their breath for that one.

I’ve come across all kinds of articles speculating on active rebellion, a shooting war with the government and the PTB. A lot of these articles don’t take into account the modern technology held by the authorities in just that case. No matter what, the civilian population is out gunned by several orders of magnitude. Obviously, at least to me, is that a bulk organized rebellion is not going to make it. A general mass confrontation with the forces the government can put out there against the civilian uprising will fail. There are numerous articles I have been coming across that talk about other than a mass confrontation. In any event, as in most civilian rebellions, the casualties will be large. I am surmising that for a civilian rebellion to be successful at all there is going to have to be a general change in attitude to one that says I would rather be dead than a slave. Considering for how long the western societies have practiced economic slavery that would be quite a shift in attitude.

If this is indeed the tipping point it’s all down hill from now on, I expect access to the internet at it best, to be severely limited, at its worst, shut down for the civilian population. If this is not the tipping point, we can expect a gradual further worsening of the whole economic situation, which eventually will bring on the tipping point and the rebellion in some form begin. If we are not at this tipping point, there will be some ups and downs within the economic and financial areas, accompanied by wild gyrations in money supply, dollar values and stock markets. That this can be ended and be back to business as usual is simply not going to happen. Somewhere, somewhen, this whole mess is going to go over the cliff.

Whenever this tipping point comes, or is here, rebellion is going to occur and martial law in some form and severity will accompany it. I think it is entirely possible that the coming elections will be shut down. In any case, I predict that our situation is going to get worse, much worse. So batten down the hatches and get ready for the ride for our lives.


Anonymous said...

From Belgium

Friday last, the government nationalised the ailing Fortis Bank and today they sold 75% to a French bank. This has pleased the Vlaams population no end but I suspect that this will be only the beginning of their worries.

How much weight do the collective you give to this prediction for an event on 7 Oct. I guess we will not have long to find out.

Anonymous said...

Six months ago Bush responded to press question on economy with sarcasm, "What slowdown???"
Last week we needed a bail-out.
Bail-out failed but Pork bill passed, with Bail-out attached, several days later.
Today they are saying that the bailout may not have time to help. Oh joy.
Stock market Gurus like Cramer were sure the bailout would help last week. Today Cramer says get out of the market.
If it isn't crashing I don't know what you would call it.
The materialist group majority in this family spent the weekend partying as usual. Some spent the weekend wasting gas hauling their butts from LA to Arizona just to bask in a different sun. Go figure.
Unemployment figures do not reflect the 95% of local stiffs that are only working 3 or 4 days a week.
One local building contractor walked into work last month and announced a 15% salary cut for everybody. Even those on minimum wage.
Breaking news on our local media is telling about the guy that ran from cops and that it is colder than usual. Brilliant. Really brilliant.
Get prepared for some really hard times.
Time to gather around the community campfire and plan some survival techniques. Perhaps just reread the Trout Clan Blogs and learn.
Good Luck to all. We are going to need it!

freeacre said...

Good post,My Dear. I want to add the site of what I think is a very good essay entitled "Fight Club" on a blogsite entitled Hedonistic Pleasure Seeker.

She points the way to resistance and rebellion that does not include armed intervention, which would just invite more repression and death. It's a fun read as well, because it has a lot of those great pictures with slogans from Despair, Inc. and a memorable clip from the film, "Fight Club." May just have to re-watch "Fight Club" again soon. She also helps to identify the real enemies of the people - those 400 or so mega-rich overlords who run things on an international scale, most of which we have never heard of. The rest of who collect a salary or wages are pretty much in the same boat.
I am finding myself feeling pretty hopeful in the face of these potential hard times. I think most of us know that things have not been right for a long time. I think that most people are really sick of Wally World and the treadmill society. I am once again reminded of that Bob Dylan quote, "It doesn't take a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."
And, by the way, I used to know Billy Ayers, the so-called "terrorist" from the Weatherman Underground that McBush is accusing Obama of hanging with. Billy Ayers is no terrorist.

Palooka's Revenge said...

cramer sez get out of the market?? holy shit!!! i didn't think i'd ever see the day that would happen!!!

b.... How much weight......?

if you mean the bot predictions, i've explained a little about this before noting it is far from exact science. and certainly i put my own spin on it as i see it. its obvious they've missed some stuff horribly. and then again, have demonstrated an uncanny ability to hit de nail on de head with other stuff. i've been reading the reports for 14 months now. have heard clif on several occasions. gotten a "feel" for his intent and ethic and world view. one things fer sur in my view, he may well be wrong but he's shooting straight. and they are definitly on to something... some indication that there is a collective unconscious in play and out on the leading edge of physical manifestation. the way i see it is its all about energy. and in this case, energy with negative implication and charge to it. negative is NOT necessarly a bad thing. but everything is in flux with many factors in play affecting outcomes... stuff that actually manifests at any give time. and everything that does manifest is a nanosecond from being history and also has an effect. and many things affecting outcomes are unknown. or discounted. or misunderstood. in a nutshell, the project hypothesises that by listening in on the collective cyber jabber, its possible to get a read on coming events.

the pie monks go to great length to try to explain the suytem and its shortcomings. not the least of which, and most questionable of all, is the interpretave end of things. you can gather up all this data but you still have to apply subjective analysis and speculation as to what it all might really be saying. ie, a building in model space involving shaking and say, the number 50. they might, based on their read of the data, conclude a major earthquake is coming and as a location, on the 50th parallel. like off the pacific northwest. then a major shaker might fire off. but in hawaii... the 50th state. then again, the shaker may not even manifest. the energy involved here might manifest in some form not even recognizable to the emotional tension around it. or things may shift in the meantime and it doesn't manifest into some physical form at all. the data is, after all, a collection of stuff that, by its very nature, is also subjective.

since they've been predicting a tipping point in the wee am hours of the 7th and we sit at the eve of that, natch, the current report (pub sat) addressed it suggesting this release may be linked into the econ situation. they suggest that the thinking that got us into this situation highly likely cannot get us out of the situation. an analogy (employed as reality by my herbal doc who sez... if your sick and want to get well, the first thing to do is STOP doing what made you sick) was used to suggest that a sick economy cannot be healed by by more of what made it sick.

thus, dark times. possibly triggered by some event. some identifiable action so profound as to cause a shift in the collective on an emotional level. in this case, into emotional release. but they have said all along there may not be an identifiable event per se. could be cumulative. and there certainly have been cumulative events in the global finance circles.

on the other hand, it was noted. the opposite might happen. iow, a huge sigh of relief that the merry pranksters have actally done us this great big favor and all's well in la la land. the markets will zoom. credit desks will open up. money will flow, flow, flow again.

BUT.... i would add that that kind of scenario.... iow, positive results... feel good stuff... is NOT what the bots are programmed to look for out there in the land of cyber space (not to mention, the dow was down as much as 800 pts today). they are keyed to look for linguistics... words, phrases, with "negative" emotional tones and implication. these then are assigned quantitative value. another aspect of the work is to look for shifts in the language over time. so its highly likely that whatever form this huge. collective, emotional release takes, it won't be "feel good" related. we might liken it to a bunch of folx in a theater watching the plot build. then, either as a result of a particular scene (single event) or a combo of scenes (no single event) that eventually add up to... the who-done-it. or in this case... a collective OH SHIT release from the viewing audience!!!

all that said, the bots apparently aren't alone in this consternation about coming events this fall and beyond that can be found coming from various unrelated sources. but if you want to get a good "feel" for the bot end of it, clif and george will be on rense tonite. clif (and sidekick igor) are really the guru's of the project. particularly clif. george is the marketing end. 11 - 1 eastern. i'd suggest getting logged in early. might be a huge audience since the bot boyz have gained considerable exposure over the last few months (an outcome shunned by clif but almost had to happen given the context) and this prediction is a BFD in a lotta folx minds and hearts!!!

which, btw, could mean that the prediction itself is the trigger event... a possibility i've heard absolutely no one else suggest. however, the only way that could happen would be for nothing to happen. and, in that context, that would be a good thing. iow, a feel-good. a huge sign of relief that the world didn't suddenly come to an end. and again, not the kind of thing the bots go looking for. it could be floating around out there in model space but they'd never know it.

and if you're thinking that all the hoop-la could, in and of itself, be creating an event i'd say... damn sure could!! as individuals we're a whole lot more powerful than we think we are (which is also in play). collectively? its exponential at some point. such has already been demonstrated.

in closing, i'm watching him now since his show just came on. preaching to his flock now (puke)!! he's saying take "some" out. sez he'll never say take "all" out. sez bottom may be 8400 (i'm laughin).

"the best we can hope for right now is to take the 2nd great depression off the table."

at least he's got that part right!!

"i want you're biggest holding to be in cash right now... better safe than sorry"

how long ago have we all here been saying this?

i saw this on cnbc's crawler just before the boo-rah guru came on....

wall street may face credit shut down.

japan buying 25% of morgan stanley.

and... fed is considering some entity to put the massive CDS monster into. the agenda (purportedly) is to get the lending market opened up again. CDS... if you haven't listened to that PRI interviewed i linked yesterday, i highly recommend you do.

there is big trouble in river city folx

Palooka's Revenge said...

opps... i shifted gears there. him = cramer

freeacre said...

Take a look at this video:

Naomi Wolf explains how a coup has taken place in America.

Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

I think the part that Freeacre is referring to is that the because of a change in the law, military personnel are now bound to obey the Commander in Chief and not the Constitution. I guess this would only apply to active personnel and not to veterans. Also the contracts that active personnel made upon enlisting have been modified without renegotiation with the people involved. This constitutes a breaking of the original contract by one side which leaves the ‘soldier’ with three options, accept the new contract as is; refuse to accept the new contract and stick with the old one or refuse to accept the new contract and request retirement from the military. This is a thorny legal issue. I guess somebody should ask Gonzo for a ruling. (Yes I know he is no longer there –going – going - Gonzo).

Anyway, thanks for the link Freeacre it gets more Alice like every day.

Also thanks for your thoughts ‘p’. Incidentally I did hear the link and sent you an e-mail about it, did you receive it?

I also heard some wild speculation that when push comes to shove, Chinese military may be augmenting The US military in US ‘crowd control’. Anybody else picked this one up yet? If there was a grain of truth in it, it would place China in a strange position with the rest of the SCO.

AlterNet, God bless them, came up with a great one liner today. “Anybody who votes for McCain / Palin is like a chicken who votes for Colonel Sanders.”

RAS said...

The Dow dropped another 500 points today. I am having a hard time reigning in my glee. I know its wrong, but I just can't help it!

From Colbert last night (paraphrased): Is this the end of American capitalism? No! The Dow still has another 9,000 points to drop. We have until December, at least. Merry Christmas!

Someone on NPR just said the market is as bad as '29. Whoa -that is a serious admission for a news outlet like NPR.

Regarding rebellions: openly taking on a much larger and more powerful force is generally a good way to commit suicide. The only way to win such a fight is to conduct an asymmetrical/guerrila war. There are many examples of this in history: the Afghans defeating the Soviets, the colonies and Britain, etc. You don't fight a much larger force on the battlefield. You disrupt their supply lines, poison thier water, destroy their food. The old David and Goliath principle.

In the modern world, this translates into hitting modern states where they are weakest: power, fuel, and of course supplies. Modern equipment and modern nations all depend on such and are extremely frgaile. Lose a few power stations/substations, fueling depots and the like and most modern states would be crippled at least temporarily. Do that during a crisis when everything is falling apart and it can cripple it permanently.
I'm just commenting on the historical parallels here, mind.

Jacques de Beaufort said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
RAS said...

I'm a little bit drunk. I had some old beer in the fridge and discovered that I can't listen to John McCain open his mouth without taking a drink. Not that Obama is much better, but still.
Hey, but at least it's getting interesting.
I need cookies and more beer...

...P said...

@ RAS.... LOL!!

stoney13 said...

Banksters! I LIKE that! With your permission, I might use it!

What we have here, is the chickens coming home to roost, in spite of all the big banksters trying to shoot them before they fly over the fence. The problem is that the banksters have air rifles, and the chickens are many! Oh yea! It happens to be dark outside!

700 billion dollars will do nothing! Buying up all the bad debts will do nothing! Once again, The American Government tries to fix a dry well by pouring water in it!

What SHOULD have happened, is to put the money in a trust fund, and use it to help people who are having trouble paying off the mortgages that are killing off the banks! THEN the banks will have a better chance of pulling themselves out of the mess that all this deregulation and lack of oversight has caused!

After the market starts to recover, the people can pay back the loans at a low rate, and the country will have a better chance of getting the money back!

Another good trick would be to make higher education easier to afford. A high school education will get you a job at the same hamburger stand all the drop-outs are working at!

Of course it's three years too late to do any of this shit, and we're all fucked no matter which way you slice it!

Still, I'd rather the country be fucked with Obama running the country than "St John the Semiconscious", and "Mad Mama Moose Slayer"!

freeacre said...

I thought McLame just embarrassed himself tonight. He kept repeating "I know how to do that" like a broken record. He just came off like a seriously clueless motherfucker to me.
Obama seemed so much more poised and knowledgeable. I just wish he'd say that he wants to abolish the Federal Reserve.

Anonymous said...

From Belgium,


Does he look like a guy with a death wish, especially when he has Brzezinski in his corner? Obama is certainly winning the charisma contest when compared to the befuddled door post but neither of them said anything of consequence. Yes they made a few debating points at the others expense but neither of them said how they would go about achieving anything they proposed. When there were no positive points made it has to equate to a zero sum game.

RAS said...

McCain just looked sick last night. He walked funny as well. And he referred to Obama at one point as "that one". Huh? I'm sorry? Can you not remember your opponents name or are you just that impolite?
I am not a member of the Cult of Obama, but he would at least improve our appearance in the world as it crumbles around us.

What occasionally surprises me is that people are still talking about how to acheive universal health care and things like that while what they should be talking aobut is how to secure food and water for everyone going into the future. That cognitive dissonace thing again. One foot in each world.

Jacques de Beaufort said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said... Watch Join

Zeitgeist Addendum may be our only hope.

Anonymous said...

Like ras, I feel the same high each time I see the damn DOW falling like a rock. I know that's probably a bad way of looking at all this, but I'm hoping that it makes a bunch of rich bastards poor -make them more like the "riff-raff" they despise.

The campaign is getting ugly and I don't care. If there is an actual election, which I don't think will happen, McInsane and Bimbo will narrowly win the election via Diebold.

We're freak'in doomed, man.

Does anyone think that buying gold will help any? My Mom is pestering me about what to do with her retirement nest egg in the bank. Hell, I don't know what to do. She needs that to live off of for the rest of her life so I guess I can see why she's scared. Not sure if having gold will do her much good. In a "Mad Max" world, having some gold might be hazzard to your health.



murph said...


Your mother has some legitimate reasons for being scared, she's between a rock and a hard place.

Here is where I am at right now. Definitely no more than FDIC insured money in any bank. Unless the banks declare a holiday, or the FDIC can't cover if the banks go down, she should have access to her money. It's the holiday I am most concerned about.

Holding substantial amounts of gold or silver is risky, particularly if you have to protect it. At this particular time, forget buying gold. As far as I know, no dealer has any to sell unless you want numismatic stuff, which is a bad bad idea. What is available is silver eagles. Problem is it makes a pile 70 times larger than a pile of gold with the same amount of money right now. Heavy too. Could think about buying bags of pre '64' American coinage, halves and quarters. Again, volume and weight.

Believe me man, been down this road of decisions before. A whole lot of retired people having to think about this very problem. Also have the problem of buying any of it right now in that what if the price bottoms? The way this stuff is manipulated, could happen and the price is now high. What little bit I have I bought when it was a hell of a lot less. Wish I'd had more money to buy with back then.

Rough decision on what to do. Good luck man.

freeacre said...

...well said, Jacque de Beaufort!

freeacre said...

Well, I am blown away. I just read the first 3 posts on this site:

Read these at your own risk of major horror at the plots and subplots going on within the banking cabal and the Republican Party. Plots so criminal, outrageous and objectionable that if the public ever got their mind around it all, we'd all be tearing up the road.

"Secrets revealed." Are these the secrets revealed that the Time Monks refer to in their projections? Maybe.

All I know is that it's way beyond what I am capable of dealing with. I find myself concluding that the only life I have any hope of dominion over is my own. I can declare a revolution in my own life, and live the way I want it to be. If that has some sort of ripple effect, then good. If it doesn't, well, I can still live my life with as few compromises as I can manage and do what I believe to be right for me and my little corner of the planet. A candle can still be lit even if surrounded by a vast sea of darkness. It's light, however, will not illuminate the whole field.
I find myself mesmerized by the spectacle, obsessed by the criminality, the depravity, the hypocrisy and arrogance of the players involved.
I need to turn my attention to my own little free acre of land, where we just attempt to live simply and honestly and resist the forces of darkness as much as we can.

Anonymous said...

There are just days I need to rant... this is one of them.

You know it seems to be increasingly difficult for me to get by each day without wondering WTF is wrong with the gray matter inside the heads of people in general, but in specific those that live in the good lo' US of A?

First lets look at the recent $440, 000.00 tab for a SPA weekend for the agents and the hierarchy of AIG. I mean really WTF!!!! This company has been given a multi billion dollar taxpayer funded reprieve and they then proceed with a rewards weekend for the top agents and execs of the company??? This is wrong on so many levels. As if that was not enough salt into the eyes of the taxpayer then there is this...

What to tell the family/s that have been wiped out financially and have lost or in the process of losing their home when you see this sort of thing happening. Is there any wonder why the whole financial situation is crumbling.... these are some of the brightest minds in the industry that believe they deserve such rewards.


Not sure if many of you follow what happens in the fantasy world of cinema but I recently caught a headline concerning a major movie actor.

Again this is just a sign of what is really wrong with the whole F'd up mess. Just try to convince me that anyone who slaps on the actors makeup is worth an additional billion on top of what he has already socked away. Thank god I am still able to download movies cause I may not be a Jack Sparrow making a couple billion through Disney but I damn sure ain't gonna stop pirating movies and to the RIAA go FUCK yourselves!! Dang that feels good...

Still on this particular rant here is another tid bit....;

I guess where this is all originating is that recent poll numbers that indicate that GW Bush has a popularity rating of around 25%, something I would like to dispute yet when I see that there are situations like these and there really is no outrage that payouts like these take place all the while the country slides into a depression then I am closer to understanding that the minds of a good majority of Americans are just mush. There is NOTHING going on between the ears, as would be the same as those who are standing in favor of McCain and his side bitch Palin. WTF are you thinking??? Obama in my mind is a poor substitute and at best can be construed as the lesser of the two evils. BUT who the FUCK wants to be lead by the lesser of two evils!!!!

What really amazes me is that in a country of 300 plus million people the BEST as chosen by those entrusted with that selection decision, the best for the Repubs and the Dems are these two candidates...

There is very little wonder why the country is as FUCKED up as it is ... really just think about...or not


Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

Ha, nice rant Ely, (and you too Jacques), sometimes it feels good just to get it off your chest and other times it doesn’t. Console yourself with the fact that nearly half a million has just gone back into circulation instead of somebody’s back pocket as part of the working through of the process of a failed deal and since they do these things all the time then that is no bad thing, lolo. It’s just a shame for all the poor bastards who thought their claims were covered and are withering away whilst expensive lawyers dispute the fine print.

The Obama / McLamebrain show is just an extension of Idol and should be regarded as such especially since all the serious candidates were destined to fall in the water. The remaining few are just playing the game out. I remember the times when footballers and the like, used to get the same wages as a working man and now they don’t but hey, that’s show business. I guess from the days of reel to reel tape recorders we have been brought up in a culture where nearly everybody could star in a film called Pirates of the Box Office.

I guess in a couple of thousand years when archaeologists with their little trowels are picking over the bones of the American Empire they will find the images of a few good men. Here is one of them.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Murph for the info.

The DOW is down 500 friggin points! Geez, we be toast, 'n stuff.

I feel the same way, Ely -almost! Saw some video on the mouth-breathers who showed up to support their second coming -Palin. Geez, that woman scares me silly. If McInsane and Carribou Barbie steal this election, I don't know..... I might have to move to Canada or something. 'Da islands, Mon" would be my first choice, of course, with New Zealand a close second. Yes, I did read a little about Joe Bagauet (spelling?) and his life in Belize -and it all sounds good to me, mon. No more winter clothes!


RAS said...

Another 500+ down day on the Dow. I think I feel such glee over this because these bastards have ruined a good bit of the world and now some of them are getting their due.

I've often thougtht that the Dow could still be hitting new highs while most of us were starving in the streets, so it seems fitting to me that it is crashing along with everything else.

Dude, I wouldn't keep it in the stock market. Maybe keep most of in the bank in a savings account that's insured and then keep some of it in phsyical gold or silver and some in hard assests that have real value (food, land, ammo, alcohol). She might want to consider living close to you as well.

I love that, fa. The darkness can never truly put out the light. No star dies forever. I can't help but think of Tolkein often these days. "It is only given us to determine what to do with the time we have been given."

Anonymous said...

breakdown on the little 440K AIG par-tee wknd...

$201,047.42 for hotel rooms $147,301.71 for catered banquets
$23,380 for the hotel spa and another $1,488 for the salon.
Golf for $6,939.09
$5,016.32 spent at the Tavern.

thats only a little over 385K. so why's every body getting their panties in a wad? opps, damn, i forgot the tip!! add 50K and change. on a 385K tab. only 13% for the grunts. cheapskates!!!

...ppohy (asmazing how the word verification letters are so often right on)

Jacques de Beaufort said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

I’m with you on this one Jacques, I don’t think his argument is properly thought through unless oil is going to be squandered on more fruitless wars. According to that last link I put up, some of your tax dollars will be diverted to propping up the ailing House of Saud instead of helping those it was intended for. Who are they? I will leave you to take a stab at that one. Btw, I am just an ordinary guy who says what he thinks, nothing special really;-)

RAS said...

Jacques, from what I can tell what he is saying is this:
1.) the recession will cause oil demand to drop and somewhat curtail consumption
2.) it will also make all of these new projects uneconomical or make it impossible for them to get financing.

We will still be using oil and depletion will still be occuring. So when the inevitable (and temporary) recovery occurs and oil demand ramps back up, we won't be able to increase supply by as much as we would if all of these projects continued now.
So, we have passed the overall peak but the depression will increase the overall depletion time.

Does that make any sense? I'm not an egghead btw, just a geek, lol.

Anonymous said...

From Belgium,


I couldn't have put it better myself, in fact I didn't. I bow to your superior intellect.

Anonymous said...

Read this today and thought it was pretty good.


The End of the Economy

The good news for economy – I use the word in its old, perhaps archaic, sense – keeps on coming, but we are told the current “economic” crisis is a tragedy for the nation’s living standards. Far from it. First of all, let’s define economy. What we are hopefully entering is a period of real economy, which means conserving, scaling down, simplifying, saving, spending prudently and wisely and only for the things that one needs. A decent meal of greens and simple protein (I suggest beans and rice and spinach), good drink (Budweiser works wonders), clothes and shoes that last and can be mended for the long haul (try old military surplus and paratrooper boots), shelter that is modest and affordable but functional and not a credit scam. Having a beautiful wife or girlfriend who doesn’t like to wear clothing also helps.

But everywhere the consensus trance holds that a slow-down of consumption signals the End Time, the shuttering of hope, chance, freedom. Look no further than how the New York Times spins it from the usual gibberishing oracles: “The last few days have devastated the American consumer,” says retail consultant Walter Loeb. Americans, avers Loeb, “all feel poor.” Really? So too we are meant to believe that “when consumers get concerned about…their country, they need entertainment,” per the wisdom of the Entertainment Merchants Association. So too is it “amazing how much even these 10-year-old girls are aware that something is going on,” the chairman and chief executive of Tween Brands tells us, who has been traveling the country to “listen to moms and little girls.” And what does the CEO hear? “Mom is saying, ‘I can’t afford that.’”

Tragic, darkness at noon, a nightmare I tell you. The reporters in the mainstream press, as dimly discerning as dreamers who know nothing but the dream from which they can’t awake, escort us through the envisaged circles of hell of this “unaffordable” world. The benefits of the descent are manifold but tacitly unrecognized: the malls no longer trap rats with credit cards, the casinos no longer suck blood from the arms of degenerates, the lousy restaurants no longer make you nauseous for $100 a plate (gasp – the Times reports that the ungrateful citizens are eating at home!), the retailers no longer ask you to throw away perfectly good shoes, the jewelers no longer sell to serious adults the silly shiny trinkets meant for the pleasure of cretins, the auto dealerships no longer peddle cars half as efficient as last year’s model, the cellphone hawkers no longer sell the I3869Zed Super-Iphone to burn out the brains and tire the ears, the home builders no longer slap-dab junk homes in exurban fields meant for farms that can sustain something we once called the future.

Nor, according to the New York Times, will the new blah-blah Super-Blah be available, because of the contracting “economy,” and the other new blahs from Blah Inc., and many other new blahs that Blah Investments recommends – because the consumer just won’t make the penny scream, won’t play the game. The game, of course, is predicated on being an infantilized weirdo, a grasping entitled half-fetus on two legs with a college degree crying “awn it awn it” from inside the womb of cash, cycling through the drooled suggestions of the marketeers as if our “freedom” depends on how much money we can waste rather than how much we need to survive.

Like I said, recession is all good news, and not just for our brains and souls, but for the planet and the real chance for Americans to survive in some kind of non-debased, non-infantilized, non-crap-inundated form – a race of fully matured and, dare I say, noble creatures. Every time I hear the New York Times lamenting that the average American refuses to open his billfold for bullshit, I envision less metal in the junkyard, less garbage in the scow, less forest turned into the Times, less pollution in the skies and water, less stupidity in the shape of owning more. I also envision a resurgence of cobblers mending the soles of shoes – cobblers who I can’t seem to find anymore in these fair United States to fix up my boots.

If it’s true that consumer spending now accounts for two-thirds of the American “economy” – god help us – then there’s nothing economic about it, as defined above. In other words, if it doesn’t economize, then the “economy” is not worth maintaining.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Belgium, thanks Dude some days I just can't seem to take any more of the crap that this whole society has become.

I think to myself what would an advanced alien race think of who we are as a species. If they were to look at what we do to ourselves, what we say and how we conduct ourselves in relation to our environment and our own kind.

Maybe they would just say ... well sooooo that is what happens without intervention Oh Well!! and we will now conclude our little experiment..poooof!

How did we become this type of species? We have this ability to be so very much more, to stretch in unlimited and creative ways our very being and yet we aspire to achieve so very little?

I think in the not too distant future we will see the true depths at which we as a species will fall..


Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

If space aliens looked at us from above they would probably say “Let’s clear off to Mars and see what is going on over there”. You know it is not a big step from Tonka toys to Comaros or from pony castles to McMansions. We never stopped acting like children so they never stopped treating us as such. Our biggest downfall is being easily influenced. What was that saying about being able to resist everything except temptation?

I guess Dudes article above is about a grass roots movement away from the ‘cultural’ norm which Freeacre has been advocating or some time now. That would send shockwaves through the system and fire a broadside at Mr Paulson’s life raft. “If we can’t get on it then why should you”

It seems that the normal reaction to being rescued is to let out a big sigh of relief then get as rat assed as hell as per AIG. Last Friday, as I mentioned earlier, Fortis Bank was nationalised and on Monday 75% was sold to a French bank. This weekend Fortis top brass is having a knees up at the swankiest hotel / restaurant in Paris. But what is not clear is who is footing the bill. It could be the French bank or Fortis but if you told me it was the Belgian taxpayer would I be surprised? The VTM newsreader certainly showed he was far from impressed.

Time to man the transporters and prepare to be beamed up.

RAS said...

Belgium, if I said something annoying I'm sorry. And I certainly don't have a superior intellect (nor do I pretend to).

I read this morning that in the last week alone (not counting today) the Dow has lost 20.1% of its value. How much does it have to lose before being labeld a crash? To me that's a crash...
The Automatic Earth says the world will not be the same Monday morning. I believe it.

What am I going to do this weekend? Clean house, play with the dogs, and bake some chocolate chip cookies. To paraphrase someone's old saying, even when the world comes to an end you still have to do the laundry!

Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

Hey Ras, That was a tounge in cheek over Jacques egg head remark after you got the answer and I flunked it. No offence on my part and I hope none on yours.

Anonymous said...

world bank hacked? according to fox news, yup...,2933,435681,00.html

pdf files of world bank memos...

okay all you skeptics and purveyors of critical thinking... take a look at the memos. ist.. link... july date. with a sept update tacked to the bottom of it. hummmm. and how 'bout the overall format? wadda ya think??

world bank stmt in re to fox...

"The Fox News story is wrong and is riddled with falsehoods and errors. The story cites misinformation from unattributed sources and leaked emails that are taken out of context.

"Like other public and private institutions, the World Bank has repeatedly experienced hacking attacks on its computer systems and is constantly updating its security to defeat these. But at no point has a hacking attack accessed sensitive information in the World Bank's Treasury, procurement, anti-corruption or human resources departments."


KesheR said...

Hi, I just found the blog surfing the net. I think it's great, because you face the problems of our society without loosing hope. I like the idea of anarchism and neotribalism, also. So I'm going to read all you write from now on.

RAS said...

Belgium, there's certainly no offense on my part. I just wasn't certain if you were being tongue in cheek or if I had offended you. That's one of the downsides of the net, unfortunately.

freeacre said...

Welcome to the campfire, kesher! We have an eclectic mix of smart, sensitive, creative, angry, and generous of spirit people who gather here while we ponder what is going on and how to deal with it. Plenty of room at the fire.

Anonymous said...

kesher... you've traveled a great distance to join us. you must be weary and hungry. pull up a log. join our circle around the warmth and light of the fire. partake of the nourishment of the sharing of ideas as we pass the talking stick amongst us.

we've all come in from the cold in our own ways. those stories we share and we look forward to yours. and we look forward to hearing your views. it is how we grow and come to know better our brothers and sisters. and thus, ourselves.

we all pretty much agree here that we are in a most significant of times. we may vary loosly in interpretations of why this may be so, how it will play out, is there an original causality to it, who's to blame, how to prepare and protect ourselves, and so on. but we pretty much agree that there is a great unraveling of energies unfolding. that much has been withheld and we have been/are being victumized.

i will only speak for myself and say i believe what we are seeing are reflections of our own denials. that these denials play out on energetic levels and surface to manifest in our lives. that in many ways, we repeat the past until we change the past. that in the end, we are our own perp and our own victum. and there is only one solution... paradigm shift in the condition of the human condition at a core, at a dna, level. a shift to reclaim our own denied persoanl power and magic that is our birthright as manifested spirits. personal integrity and responsibility for ourselves and an understanding that we are all connected in a greater idea and that the true passion that drives us is for life and love and pursuit of that idea, that destiny path. that our greatest challenge is our own personal shadow and bringing that shadow into the light that only unconditional acceptance can activate on an operative level. do this and the reflections will change.

spanish, one of the delights in life that remains unrequited to this one. is there a translation to english available to your blog?

regards, and again, welcome,
hola, palooka

murph said...


Welcome to the campfire. I think you will find the next post interesting, it is a condensed history of this site on it's anniversary. Going back into the archives will give you a more comprehensive idea of what we are about also.

KesheR said...

Jesus. That was the most awesome welcome I have ever been given. I think I'm gonna have a great time talking with you by the fire. (My blog is not translated to English, sorry :( )

Anonymous said...

From Belgium,

Hi Kersher Here is a cyber handshake across the internet, make yourself welcome.

Anonymous said...

Palooka -- Try babelfish. It'll "translate" the whole web page for you. I put that in quotes because some of the words it used seem a little strange, and I don't imagine they are what our new friend had in mind. But you can catch the drift.

murph said...


What is the address of your blog?

KesheR said...

Automatic translation

freeacre said...

OK, have I got this right? In addition to bailing out the pimps on the stock market, the ones who's dividends go up every time there is a big layoff of American workers and the ones who live a life of luxury while tent cities are springing up all over just in time for winter, now we are going to bail out the banks as well? The BANKS?? The ones that pay less interest on savings accounts than inflation? The ones who wait to deposit your check while piling on $35 non-sufficient fund charges on checks you write so that they can rob you to death and ruin your credit rating? The ones who own the credit card companies and charge 26 and 30 percent interest on transactions? The ones who encourage you to buy catastrophic insurance in case you lose your job, and then when you need it, pay themselves late so that they can add on penalty fees when the crisis is over or the person has died? That happened to me when my husband was dying of cancer. By the time he died, they had racked up $700 in "late" charges on a balance of $1,200. Some insurance. THOSE BANKS? The ones who never give us a break. We are supposed to bail THEM out??
I don't think so. May they rot in hell. These are the same greedy bastards that rob us at every opportunity and treat us like dirt.
We should be throwing bricks through their windows. We should be arresting them for fraud and grand larceny and crimes against the country. They should have their homes and properties and assets seized to pay back the fraudulent practices they have committed that have led to the collapse of the economy. But is that happening? Noooo... they are partying and getting massages and manicures and playing golf AT OUR EXPENSE.
Now we get to clearly see just who this congress works for. It aint us, that's for sure.
This whole situation is making me so mad that I'm just ready to pop. The really sickening thing is that they have not only looted us and the nation, but our children as well. And, I think the blowback from this one is going to be severe. Not everyone in the world is as brain dead as Americans are. They are going to be justifiably enraged as they deal with the fraudulent stocks we have sold them.
And all this while the world runs out of resources and we really need to focus on conserving and creating alternatives to the wasteful lifestyle that has been like a disease that we share. Instead, they are doing this. I can't believe it.
Every asshole in congress who voted for this clusterfuck should not be coming back to their office after that elections, except to pack up their shit and get the fuck out. Cindy Sheehan should take the place of Nancy Pelosi. If the citizens have any clout at all, this is time to show it.
I can forgive them, Palooka, AFTER they make restitution and sincerely apologize.

Anonymous said...

ya know, its a real heart breaker to have to spend an entire lifetime learning just how fucked up the condition of the human condition is. we come into it with our own bag of rocks and weigh everything and everybody else against whats in our bag. we come into life totally depenpendent. we can't walk, we can't feed ourselves, clothe ourselves, protect ourselves. hell, we can't even wipe our own ass. we're born into family and education systems that tell us over and over and over that what's in our bag is fucked up. do this instead. don't do that. along the way we become more aware of what's in the bag and what's out there. sooner or later we realize... hey, there's a disconnect here. something about what's in my bag that keeps telling me that it don't fit with what's out there. like trying to force a round peg into a square hole. but we have this monkey sitting on our shoulder that keeps telling us we must keep trying to force that peg into that hole. the sonofa bitch is stuck up there. like stink on shit. that keeps tellin us its our fault that the peg don't fit. that if i set my own course, a course different to all other courses, i'm being selfish.

fuck forgivin em FA. in far too many cases forgiveness for the sake of forgiveness is nothin but guilt talkin. the only forgiveness you'll hear me fight for is self forgiveness... p

freeacre said...


(light bulb moment)

Anonymous said...

OK swimmers, Zeitgeist:Addendum was released 10/2/08, get it at google, free.
Just started watching it and if it's as good as Zeitgeist and the Pharmaceutic Inquisition we're in for a nice ride.
peace and love and welcome to to you Kesher,nice to have new folks at the council.

Anonymous said...

p, your my idol,

Anonymous said...

mf... idle the idols we place in false shoes. acknowledge the voices we feel that ring true. thus i declare... the sentiment is mutural my friend.

fa... secrets revealed? (lol)